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categories: ["foundations", "longevity"]categories: ["foundations", "longevity"]tags: ["machine learning", "drug development", "generative chemistry", "target discovery", "clinical trials", "pharmacology"]tags: ["machine learning", "drug development", "generative chemistry", "target discovery", "clinical trials", "pharmacology"]summary: "The use of machine learning to select drug targets, generate candidate molecules and predict failure, so far demonstrably faster at making compounds than at making medicines."summary: "The use of machine learning to select drug targets, generate candidate molecules and predict failure, so far demonstrably faster at making compounds than at making medicines."updated: "2026-10-29"updated: "2026-10-30"humanEvidence: "AI-derived small molecules have reached phase 1 and 2 trials, with a first phase 3 begun in 2026; sponsors of an mRNA therapy built on algorithm-selected neoantigens report a phase 3 in melanoma met its endpoints, and no drug from either route is approved."humanEvidence: "AI-derived small molecules have reached phase 1 and 2 trials, with a first phase 3 begun in 2026; sponsors of an mRNA therapy built on algorithm-selected neoantigens report a phase 3 in melanoma met its endpoints, and no drug from either route is approved."access: "Platforms are proprietary to pharmaceutical companies or licensed to them, and some models and datasets are public; no molecule designed this way is available outside a trial, though AI-suggested uses of approved drugs are."access: "Platforms are proprietary to pharmaceutical companies or licensed to them, and some models and datasets are public; no molecule designed this way is available outside a trial, though AI-suggested uses of approved drugs are."reversibility: "context"reversibility: "context"lines 83–91 → 83–9468 unchanged lines not shown
its drug-design work out into a separate company. Anthropic reported in October 2026 on researchits drug-design work out into a separate company. Anthropic reported in October 2026 on researchpartnerships with six drug developers (BigHat Biosciences, Bristol Myers Squibb, Divergence Labs,partnerships with six drug developers (BigHat Biosciences, Bristol Myers Squibb, Divergence Labs,Enveda, Generate Biomedicines and The Column Group) and on programmes of its own, having acquiredEnveda, Generate Biomedicines and The Column Group) and on programmes of its own, having acquiredMithril Medicine, a one-person company working on two rare forms of muscular dystrophy whose founderMithril Medicine, which it describes as a one-person company working on two rare forms of muscularhad used the company's Claude models to coordinate experiments across eleven externaldystrophy whose founder had used the company's Claude models to coordinate experiments across elevenlaboratories.[^anthropic2026] Anthropic's stated reasoning is that the bottlenecks are distributedexternal laboratories.[^anthropic2026] Mithril's technical report dates the acquisition to July 2026and names its author, Cody Tranbarger, as the founder; it also lists a team of paid consultants andadvisers, and every experiment in it was performed by contract researchorganizations.[^tranbarger2026] Anthropic's stated reasoning is that the bottlenecks are distributedthrough the whole development process rather than concentrated in molecule design.through the whole development process rather than concentrated in molecule design. ## Development history## Development historylines 147–158 → 150–17755 unchanged lines not shown
operational work includes a manufacturing-document review at Enveda that the company says cut humanoperational work includes a manufacturing-document review at Enveda that the company says cut humanreview time by 89%, and an assessment of clinical-trial plans at Bristol Myers Squibb. Every figurereview time by 89%, and an assessment of clinical-trial plans at Bristol Myers Squibb. Every figureis reported by the companies themselves, and Anthropic describes the work as early and mostlyis reported by the companies themselves, and Anthropic describes the work as early and mostlypreclinical: nothing from it has entered a human trial, and the earliest first-in-human date thepreclinical: for the most part its drugs have not reached human testing, though the Bristol Myerscompany offers, late 2028, is conditional on its candidates continuing to hold up. ItsSquibb work concerns an early-stage drug already in clinical trials. The earliest first-in-human date Anthropic offersfor its own programmes, late 2028, is conditional on its candidates continuing to hold up. Itsfurthest-advanced internal programme, a bispecific antibody for a form of congenital muscularfurthest-advanced internal programme, a bispecific antibody for a form of congenital musculardystrophy, rests on a pilot study in mice whose accompanying technical report states that it was notdystrophy, rests on a pilot study in mice whose accompanying technical report states that it was notpeer reviewed and that the experiments were neither randomized nor blinded.peer reviewed and that the experiments were neither randomized nor blinded. That report sets out what the programme has and has not shown. In LAMA2-related congenital musculardystrophy the protein that ties the sheath around each muscle fibre to a receptor in the fibre'smembrane is missing; a related laminin takes its place but holds on weakly, and the antibody ismeant to clamp the two together, one arm on the substitute laminin and one on beta-dystroglycan. Twoformats were studied in depth, a bivalent mouse version and a tetravalent humanized one. Both boundtheir targets at nanomolar affinity and held dystroglycan-overexpressing cells on a laminin fragmentin culture. In dyW mice dosed from birth for six weeks, the tetravalent group developed about twicethe evoked forelimb force and grip strength of vehicle-treated mice, while the bivalent one had nodetectable effect on force. The limitations the report lists are substantial: groups of four toseven mice enrolled in sequence, no prespecified endpoint, and a force difference that gaveP = 0.057 with litters rather than individual mice as the unit of analysis, the smallest value sevenlitters allow. Survival was not an endpoint and histology was not assessed. Claude, the authors write, searched the literature, pulled the contractlaboratories' reports into tables, re-analysed and plotted the data and drafted the text under theirdirection, and made errors that they catalogue.[^tranbarger2026] > [!caution] What "AI-discovered" means> [!caution] What "AI-discovered" means> No regulator recognizes the category, and companies apply the label to everything from a molecule> No regulator recognizes the category, and companies apply the label to everything from a molecule> drawn by a generative model to a conventional campaign in which a classifier filtered one plate.> drawn by a generative model to a conventional campaign in which a classifier filtered one plate.lines 270–275 → 289–295111 unchanged lines not shown
[^zhavoronkov2019]: `paper` Zhavoronkov, A. et al. "Deep learning enables rapid identification of potent DDR1 kinase inhibitors." *Nature Biotechnology*, 2019. {DDR1 was a well-precedented target and the compounds resembled known inhibitors; chemists disputed how much of the speed the model explained.}[^zhavoronkov2019]: `paper` Zhavoronkov, A. et al. "Deep learning enables rapid identification of potent DDR1 kinase inhibitors." *Nature Biotechnology*, 2019. {DDR1 was a well-precedented target and the compounds resembled known inhibitors; chemists disputed how much of the speed the model explained.}[^stokes2020]: `paper` Stokes, J.M. et al. "A Deep Learning Approach to Antibiotic Discovery." *Cell*, 2020. {Halicin's activity was confirmed in mouse infection models; it has not entered human trials.}[^stokes2020]: `paper` Stokes, J.M. et al. "A Deep Learning Approach to Antibiotic Discovery." *Cell*, 2020. {Halicin's activity was confirmed in mouse infection models; it has not entered human trials.}[^anthropic2026]: `statement` Anthropic. "Early progress on accelerating drug development with Claude." Company blog post, October 27, 2026, with the accompanying technical report by Tranbarger, C. and Mithril Medicine on a bispecific bridging antibody for LAMA2-related congenital muscular dystrophy, October 26, 2026. {Every result is the companies' own; the technical report is marked not peer reviewed and its mouse pilot was neither randomized nor blinded.}[^anthropic2026]: `statement` Anthropic. "Early progress on accelerating drug development with Claude." Company blog post, October 27, 2026, with the accompanying technical report by Tranbarger, C. and Mithril Medicine on a bispecific bridging antibody for LAMA2-related congenital muscular dystrophy, October 26, 2026. {Every result is the companies' own; the technical report is marked not peer reviewed and its mouse pilot was neither randomized nor blinded.}[^tranbarger2026]: `statement` Tranbarger, C. and Mithril Medicine. "Preclinical Characterization of a Bispecific Bridging Antibody for the Treatment of LAMA2-Related Congenital Muscular Dystrophy." Anthropic technical report, October 26, 2026. {Not peer reviewed; its competing-interests note states that Anthropic acquired Mithril in July 2026, owns the programme and employs the author, who founded the company.}[^xu2025]: `paper` Xu, Z. et al. "A generative AI-discovered TNIK inhibitor for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a randomized phase 2a trial." *Nature Medicine*, 2025. {Seventy-one patients across three dose arms and placebo, treated for twelve weeks; a trial that size and length cannot establish clinical benefit in fibrosis.}[^xu2025]: `paper` Xu, Z. et al. "A generative AI-discovered TNIK inhibitor for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a randomized phase 2a trial." *Nature Medicine*, 2025. {Seventy-one patients across three dose arms and placebo, treated for twelve weeks; a trial that size and length cannot establish clinical benefit in fibrosis.}[^insilico2026]: `statement` Insilico Medicine. "Insilico Initiates Phase III Clinical Trial for Rentosertib, Its AI-Empowered TNIK Inhibitor for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis." Press release, July 2026. {Announces trial initiation only, not results; a 320-patient, 52-week randomized placebo-controlled study at Chinese centres.}[^insilico2026]: `statement` Insilico Medicine. "Insilico Initiates Phase III Clinical Trial for Rentosertib, Its AI-Empowered TNIK Inhibitor for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis." Press release, July 2026. {Announces trial initiation only, not results; a 320-patient, 52-week randomized placebo-controlled study at Chinese centres.}[^merck2026]: `statement` Merck and Moderna. "Merck and Moderna Announce Phase 3 INTerpath-001 Trial of Intismeran Autogene Plus KEYTRUDA Met Endpoints of RFS and DMFS in Patients With Completely Resected Stage IIB–IV Melanoma." Joint press release, August 19, 2026. {A topline interim-analysis announcement; hazard ratios and detailed results were not disclosed with it.}[^merck2026]: `statement` Merck and Moderna. "Merck and Moderna Announce Phase 3 INTerpath-001 Trial of Intismeran Autogene Plus KEYTRUDA Met Endpoints of RFS and DMFS in Patients With Completely Resected Stage IIB–IV Melanoma." Joint press release, August 19, 2026. {A topline interim-analysis announcement; hazard ratios and detailed results were not disclosed with it.}removed, struck through added, underlinedLine numbers count the serialised markdown of each revision, frontmatter included.
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